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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071713
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located over the south-central 
Caribbean Sea.  

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE  SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
 the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9
 with movement W at 18 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 5A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 071741
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 73.9 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days,
passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening,
and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.  After landfall,
Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and
move across Central America through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a 
hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and 
Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua
within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the watch area in Honduras Sunday morning.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts
of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and
reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on
Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday
night and Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 071454
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA
ISLANDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  73.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  73.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  72.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N  78.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N  81.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N  88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N  93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  73.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 071455
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with 
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the 
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave 
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over 
the adjacent waters.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb 
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on 
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.
 
Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster 
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.  
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which 
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a 
quick westward path during the next 48 hours.  Since the track 
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the 
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by 
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously 
forecast.  After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates 
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and 
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and 
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the 
recent convective burst.  Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear 
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening 
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea.  Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday 
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in 
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory.  The official 
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus 
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  The NHC 
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the 
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that 
the center will have dissipated by those times.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday 
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a 
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and 
Santa Catalina Islands.  A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for 
much of the Nicaragua coast.  Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous 
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system 
crosses the islands and moves onshore.
 
2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the 
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America 
this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 12.7N  73.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 13.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.2N  78.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 13.1N  81.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 13.1N  83.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 60H  10/0000Z 13.6N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z 14.5N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 16.2N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Julia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022                                              

075 
FONT13 KNHC 071454
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  44(51)   8(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   3( 3)  47(50)  14(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLON          34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Julia Graphics

Tropical Storm Julia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 17:42:35 GMT

Tropical Storm Julia 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 15:22:40 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071712
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 07 Oct 2022 18:46:47 GMT