Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little 
better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally 
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to 
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of 
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical 
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM 
CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains will 
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for 
more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN  GULF COAST...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 17
 the center of Three was located near 22.9, -92.4
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 172033
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021
 
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN 
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from 
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, 
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New 
Orleans.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.9 North, longitude 92.4 West.  The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in 
forward speed is expected for the next day or so.  On the 
forecast track, the system will approach the north-central 
Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.  A northeastward motion 
across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.
 
A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form 
over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and 
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  Rainfall totals of 
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are 
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from 
the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 
This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with 
new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will 
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising 
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge 
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For 
information specific to your area, please see products issued by 
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday
afternoon across coastal Louisiana.  This threat should expand
northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and
southwest Alabama on Saturday.
  
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 172032
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  92.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  92.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N  92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N  92.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  92.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021  

880 
WTNT43 KNHC 172034
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021
 
Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with 
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep convection is 
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of 
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing 
subtropical cyclone.  Although the upper-level winds are not 
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear 
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical 
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so.  Given the proximity of 
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at 
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a  
potential tropical cyclone. 
 
Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center.  Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt.  Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.
 
Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain.  The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the 
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf 
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida.  The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions.  It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users 
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and 
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive 
well in advance of landfall. 
 
Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable 
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and 
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and 
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas 
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the 
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the 
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 22.9N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0600Z 24.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  18/1800Z 26.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 29.0N  92.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/0600Z 34.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  20/1800Z 35.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brennan

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021                                              

638 
FONT13 KNHC 172033
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   5( 5)  23(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  16(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   6( 6)  17(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Jun 2021 20:35:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Jun 2021 20:35:17 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171738
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over a hundred 
miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico, is producing a 
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this 
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico. 
Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over coastal 
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, 
Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Interests in these 
areas should monitor the progress of this system through the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Jun 2021 20:47:11 GMT