Tropical Sea Temperatures
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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 272315 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 272322 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri May 27 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of Southern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 200 miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, have increased in organization today. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Saturday while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. This system is expected to turn northward and strengthen while it moves toward southern Mexico this weekend. Tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds are becoming increasingly likely along the coast of southern Mexico early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days, which could cause flash flooding and mudslides. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012022)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS... ...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri May 27 the center of One-E was located near 12.8, -97.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 962 WTPZ31 KNHC 280248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS... ...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 97.9W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of the depression. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast of southern Mexico Saturday morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 97.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, followed by a slow turn to the north later this weekend and then a slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm early Saturday and a hurricane on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280247 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.8N 98.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.2N 98.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.7N 98.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.7N 98.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 97.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 813 WTPZ41 KNHC 280249 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center. More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient convective organization to be designated as the first depression of the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data. The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope, roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus aids. Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening during the next few days, and many models including the consensus aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h. The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the coast. Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this system. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be required Saturday morning. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 12.8N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 12.8N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 13.2N 98.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 13.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 14.7N 98.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 01/0000Z 17.2N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022
756
FOPZ11 KNHC 280249
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
10N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 100W 34 1 7( 8) 15(23) 18(41) 14(55) 1(56) X(56)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 14(25) 2(27) X(27)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 22(28) 4(32) X(32)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 44(57) 10(67) X(67)
P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) X(30)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)
HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 33(35) 15(50) X(50)
HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18)
HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 23(30) 12(42) X(42)
15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13)
15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 02:50:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 03:22:31 GMT