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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201755 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 19.2, -61.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 13A
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201754 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 61.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201456 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 60.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201457 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt. Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at 15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 201457
PWSAT5
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Jerry Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 17:55:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
799 ABPZ20 KNHC 201729 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Lorena, located very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.7, -130.2 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 33
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 130.2W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 130.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible today, but only small changes in intensity are expected during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 33
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 970 WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE. Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 201445
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 1(26)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 2(16)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:46:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:31:49 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 17.9, -110.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201454 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 110.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, however confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201454 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 201455 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone's surface center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower. Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week, the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 201455
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 3 54(57) 6(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 26 41(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 1(16)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:56:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:38:18 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON... As of 12:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.9, -109.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 13A
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201813 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 corrected initial latitude ...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 933 WTPZ25 KNHC 201451 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201452 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 65 kt. Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 201452
PWSEP5
HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 50 9(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 15 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 64 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 17 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Lorena Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 18:14:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:44:54 GMT