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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261758
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Zeta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM  SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF  COAST...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 26
 the center of Zeta was located near 19.5, -86.0
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 981 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 262041
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, 
to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, 
Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay. 
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida, and from west
of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and 
Mobile Bay 
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in 
the watch area on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday.  Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on 
Wednesday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause 
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters 
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion 
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola 
Bay...2-4 ft    
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint 
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding 
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, 
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.
 
An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through 
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.  
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches 
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane 
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in 
Mexico this evening.  

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on 
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the 
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. 

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 262041
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA 
TO NAVARRE FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... 
VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY. 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST
OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PINAR DEL RIO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY
AND MOBILE BAY 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  86.0W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  86.0W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  85.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N  87.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.1N  89.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N  91.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.8N  91.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.8N  88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.0N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 262049
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep 
convection forming over and around the center and some banding 
features developing.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters 
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner 
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of 
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.  
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some 
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the 
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.  Some weakening 
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early 
Tuesday.  Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico 
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some 
re-strengthening.  When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico 
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in 
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with 
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern 
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane 
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track, 
or at about 305/10 kt.  There are basically no changes to the track 
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself.  For the next couple 
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western 
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of 
Florida.  Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west 
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to 
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United 
States.  The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and 
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days.  The 
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the 
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model 
consensus, HCCA.

Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued 
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening 
through early Tuesday.  Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected 
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to 
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.  

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are 
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and 
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the 
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected 
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern 
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. 
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor 
river flooding.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.5N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 20.5N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.1N  89.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 24.2N  91.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 26.8N  91.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 30.8N  88.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 35.0N  83.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 262041
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)
ATLANTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)   1(37)   X(37)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BIRMINGHAM AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)   1(39)   X(39)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  46(47)   X(47)   X(47)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  47(48)   X(48)   X(48)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  31(36)   X(36)   X(36)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  54(56)   X(56)   X(56)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  54(57)   X(57)   X(57)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  51(54)   X(54)   X(54)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  56(63)   X(63)   X(63)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  34(63)   X(63)   X(63)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  44(49)   X(49)   X(49)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  46(54)  21(75)   X(75)   X(75)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  21(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   X(27)   X(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  8  43(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
MERIDA MX      50  2  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MERIDA MX      64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COZUMEL MX     50 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
COZUMEL MX     64 27   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANAJA        34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  48(51)   X(51)   X(51)
PENSACOLA NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PENSACOLA NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  56(63)   X(63)   X(63)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)
KEESLER AB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Zeta Graphics

Hurricane Zeta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 20:44:01 GMT

Hurricane Zeta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:25:39 GMT

Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:14:04 GMT

Hurricane Zeta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Zeta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:49:20 GMT

Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Zeta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 20:51:27 GMT

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at  415 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at  434 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at  448 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261718
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:48:49 GMT