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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 071713 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 5A
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071741 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 73.9 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening, and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with a high density of lightning developed near the center of the cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt. A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday. Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that the center will have dissipated by those times. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves onshore. 2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Julia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022
075
FONT13 KNHC 071454
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) 8(59) X(59) X(59)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 14(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65)
SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LIMON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COLON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Julia Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 17:42:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2022 15:22:40 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071712 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 07 Oct 2022 18:46:47 GMT