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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head
quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will
move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is
possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by
early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become
a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the
region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
significant development of this system while it moves slowly
west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20
 the center of Jerry was located near 19.2, -61.2
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 13A

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 61.2 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80
mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990
mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 201456
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  60.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  60.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  59.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N  62.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N  64.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N  66.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  60.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 201457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA
show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum
flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values
near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb
overnight.  These observations also agree with the latest satellite
imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the
far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend
of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt.

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt.  The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge.  The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction.  At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone.  The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or two, and some weakening is expected.  The intensity forecast
is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in
the short term given recent trends.  In a few days, the
aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to
impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken
or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made.  It is a
little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent
weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much
track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.8N  60.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.6N  62.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.9N  64.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 22.3N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 23.6N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 26.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 29.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
FONT15 KNHC 201457
PWSAT5

HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  37(50)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Jerry Graphics

Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 17:55:44 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

799 
ABPZ20 KNHC 201729
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane
Lorena, located very near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO ON THE UPSWING...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.7, -130.2
 with movement NNW at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 33

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 201445
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...KIKO ON THE UPSWING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 130.2W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 130.2 West. Kiko is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible
today, but only small changes in intensity are expected during the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 33

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 201440
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 33

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

970 
WTPZ43 KNHC 201447
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that
Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However,
most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is
located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly
shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt
based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates.

Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to
turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of
days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken
(again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models
vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen.
Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly
westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the
track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE.

Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it
continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model
forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the
NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC
forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial
intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous
advisory after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 201445
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  17(20)   5(25)   1(26)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   2(16)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:46:50 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:31:49 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20
 the center of Mario was located near 17.9, -110.1
 with movement NNE at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201454
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 110.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn
toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later
today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday,
however confidence in the forecast is low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening
expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 201454
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  80SE  70SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 201455
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has
been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection
is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone's surface
center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again
increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity
estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower.

Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS
diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial
northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next
couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week,
the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario
is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening
is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS
explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all
of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection
and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.

The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact
that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their
respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are
outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting
very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a
couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how
much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The
NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing
both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and
beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a
merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to
the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the
GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be
required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a
chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja
California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 201455
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  3  54(57)   6(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
20N 110W       50  X  14(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
20N 110W       64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 26  41(67)   2(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:56:03 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:38:18 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...
 As of 12:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20
 the center of Lorena was located near 22.9, -109.4
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 13A

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201813 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

corrected initial latitude

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is
now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected
later today and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from
the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will then
either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical
Storm Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern
Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

933 
WTPZ25 KNHC 201451
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 108.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201452
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying
to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC
SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images
at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers
yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the
cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the
cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler
waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin.  In
addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global
models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation
of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at
2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical
ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to
the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest
around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the
track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west
of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model
consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 201452
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 87   6(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 50   9(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 15   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 64   5(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
SAN JOSE CABO  50 17   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)  16(22)  14(36)   X(36)   X(36)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Lorena Graphics

Hurricane Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 18:14:19 GMT

Hurricane Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:44:54 GMT