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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272315
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272322
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 200 miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico,  
have increased in organization today.  Environmental conditions are 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form later tonight or on Saturday while it moves 
westward at 5 to 10 mph.  This system is expected to turn northward 
and strengthen while it moves toward southern Mexico this weekend. 
Tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds are becoming 
increasingly likely along the coast of southern Mexico early next 
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.  Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible along 
coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next 
few days, which could cause flash flooding and mudslides.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012022)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS... ...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE  EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri May 27
 the center of One-E was located near 12.8, -97.9
 with movement W at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022  

962 
WTPZ31 KNHC 280248
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 97.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of 
the depression.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will likely be 
required for portions of the coast of southern Mexico Saturday 
morning.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 97.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, 
followed by a slow turn to the north later this weekend and then a 
slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to approach the coast 
of southern Mexico on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm early Saturday and a 
hurricane on Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy 
rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, 
Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night.  Rainfall 
totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts 
of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides may occur.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are 
expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over 
portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 280247
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012022
0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE DEPRESSION.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE 
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY 
MORNING.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  97.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  97.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  97.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.8N  98.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.2N  98.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.7N  98.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N  98.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.7N  98.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N  95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N  97.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022  

813 
WTPZ41 KNHC 280249
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC 
has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the 
past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier 
microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs 
of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center. 
More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure 
of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have 
spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient 
convective organization to be designated as the first depression of 
the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak 
classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat 
uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data.

The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion 
is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough 
is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which 
will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow 
the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move 
northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The 
track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is 
somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official 
NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope, 
roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and 
the multi-model consensus aids.

Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer 
vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to 
support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In 
fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, and many models including the consensus 
aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS 
SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this 
system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h. 
The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 
late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it 
approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN 
and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the 
guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the 
coast.

Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required 
Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and 
interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this 
system.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and 
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico 
early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be required Saturday morning.  Interests in this area should closely 
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will 
develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue 
through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of flash flooding and 
mudslides.  For more information, see products from your local 
weather office. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 12.8N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 12.8N  98.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 13.2N  98.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 13.7N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 14.2N  98.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 14.7N  98.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  01/0000Z 17.2N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022                                              

756 
FOPZ11 KNHC 280249
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012022               
0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
10N 100W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 100W       34  1   7( 8)  15(23)  18(41)  14(55)   1(56)   X(56)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)  14(25)   2(27)   X(27)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  22(28)   4(32)   X(32)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ANGEL        34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   7(13)  44(57)  10(67)   X(67)
P ANGEL        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   9(30)   X(30)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
 
HUATULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  33(35)  15(50)   X(50)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   X(18)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
10N 95W        34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 95W        34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)  23(30)  12(42)   X(42)
15N 95W        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   X(13)
15N 95W        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression One-E Graphics

Tropical Depression One-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 02:50:22 GMT

Tropical Depression One-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 03:22:31 GMT