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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212322 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brennan
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Oct 2018 00:04:59 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 212330 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente, located a couple hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A small area of low pressure is located about 950 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains poorly organized, some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
...VICENTE WEAKENS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.2, -97.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 97.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. North-northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days. The official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model consensus. Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown here. The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9 kt. Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 97.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 212035
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 2 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 20:37:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 21:21:56 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Willa was located near 17.4, -107.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 7A
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212331 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212033 TCMEP4 HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212034 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Willa has continued to rapidly strengthen with the eye becoming very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The surrounding convective tops warmed around mid-day but have cooled since that time and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 102 and 90 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively at 18Z. With the continued increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity is set near the upper end of the estimates or 100 kt. Willa continues moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/5 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy over the past few advisories. The hurricane is expected to turn northward tonight or Monday around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico over mainland Mexico. A mid-level trough that is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula Monday night and Tuesday should cause Willa to turn north- northeastward and recurve around the northwestern portion of the aforementioned ridge. There are still some differences in how quickly Willa will recurve, but there is little cross-track spread in the guidance. This increases the overall confidence in the NHC track forecast, which calls for the hurricane to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The low shear and warm ocean environment ahead of Willa is expected to remain quite favorable for strengthening for at least another 12 to 24 hours, and additional intensification is likely tonight and early Monday. The new NHC track intensity forecast is above all the intensity guidance through 36 hours, and now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt within that time period. After that time, eyewall replacement cycles could result in some fluctuations in intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday could result in some weakening, but Willa is expected to approach the coast of Mexico as a very dangerous hurricane. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico should occur. A 96-hour forecast point is shown for continuity but the system is likely to dissipate before that time. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and life-threatening flash flooding. A Hurricane Watch and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.0N 107.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 212033
PWSEP4
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20)
CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 24(27) 52(79) 15(94) X(94) X(94)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 31(73) X(73) X(73)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 63(73) 1(74) X(74)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 52(73) 1(74) X(74)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16)
20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Willa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 23:31:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 21:28:06 GMT