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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212322
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Oct 2018 00:04:59 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212330
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located a couple hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A small area of low pressure is located about 950 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains poorly
organized, some slow development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds are expected to
become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

...VICENTE WEAKENS...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 21
 the center of Vicente was located near 14.2, -97.9
 with movement W at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 212035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected Monday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of
Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.  This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 212035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  97.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  97.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  97.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N  99.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  97.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the
low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a
ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Data from a recent
scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have
decreased to near 35 kt.  North-northeasterly vertical wind shear
should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global
models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days.  The
official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a
depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model
consensus.  Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown
here.

The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9
kt.  Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
for the next couple of days.  The official forecast is somewhat
faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical
model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.2N  97.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.2N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 212035
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 100W       34  2  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 20:37:18 GMT

Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 21:21:56 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)

...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...
 As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 21
 the center of Willa was located near 17.4, -107.1
 with movement NNW at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 946 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 212331
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212033
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 212034
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly strengthen with the eye becoming
very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite imagery.
The surrounding convective tops warmed around mid-day but have
cooled since that time and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 102 and 90 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively at 18Z.  With
the continued increase in organization since that time, the initial
intensity is set near the upper end of the estimates or 100 kt.

Willa continues moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/5 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy over the
past few advisories.  The hurricane is expected to turn northward
tonight or Monday around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge
that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico over mainland Mexico.
A mid-level trough that is forecast to approach the Baja California
peninsula Monday night and Tuesday should cause Willa to turn north-
northeastward and recurve around the northwestern portion of the
aforementioned ridge.  There are still some differences in how
quickly Willa will recurve, but there is little cross-track spread
in the guidance.  This increases the overall confidence in the NHC
track forecast, which calls for the hurricane to make landfall along
the southwestern coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

The low shear and warm ocean environment ahead of Willa is expected
to remain quite favorable for strengthening for at least another 12
to 24 hours, and additional intensification is likely tonight and
early Monday.  The new NHC track intensity forecast is above all
the intensity guidance through 36 hours, and now calls for a peak
intensity of 130 kt within that time period.  After that time,
eyewall replacement cycles could result in some fluctuations in
intensity.  Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday could result
in some weakening, but Willa is expected to approach the coast of
Mexico as a very dangerous hurricane.  After landfall, rapid
weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland
Mexico should occur.  A 96-hour forecast point is shown for
continuity but the system is likely to dissipate before that time.


Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday
bringing a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force
winds, and life-threatening flash flooding.  A Hurricane Watch and
tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for a portion of
the area.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 17.0N 107.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 212033
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)
CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   2( 3)  24(27)  52(79)  15(94)   X(94)   X(94)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)  31(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  30(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  63(73)   1(74)   X(74)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)   1(35)   X(35)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  18(21)  52(73)   1(74)   X(74)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)  22(45)   X(45)   X(45)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
20N 110W       34  1   3( 4)  10(14)   6(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Graphics

Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 23:31:49 GMT

Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 21:28:06 GMT