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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

379 
ABNT20 KNHC 181119
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles south of the Azores.
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located over the southern New
England.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Public Advisory Number 76

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

...JOYCE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 18
 the center of Joyce was located near 32.9, -27.6
 with movement SSE at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018  

378 
WTNT35 KNHC 180833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 27.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 27.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the south is forecast later today, followed by a
motion toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018  

140 
WTNT25 KNHC 180832
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  27.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  27.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  27.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.0N  27.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N  28.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.3N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.8N  31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.5N  34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N  27.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018  

853 
WTNT45 KNHC 180834
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

The latest convective burst associated with Joyce is weakening due
to the effects of 35-40 kt of westerly vertical shear and very dry
mid-level air.  Satellite intensity estimates have changed little
since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30
kt.  The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken due to the ongoing
shear and dry air entrainment, and the new intensity forecast again
calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12-24 h. Dissipation
of the remnants is forecast in 72-96 h in agreement with the global
model guidance.  As indicated in the previous discussion, there is
an alternative scenario where interaction with an upper-level trough
seen in water vapor imagery to the northwest of Joyce maintains
organized convection longer than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 165/5.  Joyce is forecast to move around
the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across the
eastern Atlantic, with the cyclone or its remnants turning
southwestward during the next 36 h and westward by 72 h.  The new
forecast track generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 32.9N  27.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 32.0N  27.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 31.0N  28.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 30.3N  29.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 29.8N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 29.5N  34.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018                                              

385 
FONT15 KNHC 180833
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102018               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics

Tropical Depression Joyce 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 08:35:25 GMT

Tropical Depression Joyce 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 09:27:59 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

959 
ABPZ20 KNHC 181118
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a
few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Although environmental conditions appear
conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the
system and land interaction is expected to limit the development
potential of this disturbance.  However, this system could still
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very
heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of
northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. Interests
in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the next several
days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 18 Sep 2018 12:03:08 GMT