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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 240534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. Showers and thunderstorms remain limited near the low, and this system has only a brief window of opportunity to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally south-southeastward over marginally warmer waters. Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system by late today, which should then limit further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered a couple of hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with a surface and upper-level trough. Some tropical or subtropical development of this system could occur through early Saturday as it moves generally north-northwestward. After that time, development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
...SAM IS NOW A HURRICANE... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 24 the center of Sam was located near 11.5, -42.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SAM IS NOW A HURRICANE... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 42.2W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 42.2 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a motion toward the west-northwest are expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue, and Sam is likely to become a major hurricane tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240830 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 41.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240831 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam continues to rapidly intensify. Satellite images show a small, but well-developed inner core and pronounced curved bands that wrap most of the way around the center. There are some dry slots, however, between the core and bands. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the continued improvement in the cyclone's structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 65 kt. This makes Sam a hurricane, the seventh one of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It should be noted that Sam has a compact wind field, with hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend outward up to 15 and 50 n mi from the center, respectively. Sam is moving westward at about 13 kt, and this general motion should continue for another 12 to 24 hours as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest are expected, and the official forecast has Sam moving at a slow pace of only 6-8 kt during the 48-96-hour time period. By the middle of next week, the ridge is forecast to slide eastward as a trough moves over the western Atlantic. In response, the hurricane will likely turn northwestward as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The models have changed little this cycle with the GFS still on the northern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the southern side. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models, and near the consensus aids. The large scale environmental conditions all appear favorable for continued rapid intensification during the next day or so as the hurricane is expected to remain over warm 29 deg C waters and in very low wind shear conditions. All of the SHIPS rapid intensification indices are well above the climatological means, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for Sam to become a major hurricane by early Saturday. Beyond a couple of days, the environment is likely to become a little less ideal, and most of the models show Sam leveling off in strength, and so does the official forecast. This intensity prediction lies near a blend of the FSSE, HCCA, and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of the details, Sam is expected to be a significant hurricane during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021
000
FONT13 KNHC 240831
PWSAT3
HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Sam Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 08:33:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 08:33:29 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 240526 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity remains disorganized in association with an elongated area of low pressure located almost 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is moving over cool waters and into an environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds, and development is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 24 Sep 2021 09:11:08 GMT