Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

223 
ABNT20 KNHC 132303
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 14 Jul 2020 03:24:49 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

230 
ABPZ20 KNHC 132337
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- 
developed Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13
 the center of Six-E was located near 17.0, -114.4
 with movement W at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 140233
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020
 
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 114.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 114.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and 
this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system could become a tropical storm at any time during the 
next day or two, but substantial strengthening is not expected.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140232
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020
0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 114.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140234
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased 
substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last 
3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the 
depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of 
deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity 
estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support 
naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it 
appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it 
is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were 
valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at 
30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the 
system is producing tropical-storm-force winds.

The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to 
move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a 
mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some 
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but 
significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of 
southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become 
a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and 
intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the 
NHC forecast is fairly high.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 140233
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2020 02:36:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2020 03:24:38 GMT